👀 WILL ELYSIUM SURVIVE?
I’ve been buying into the @Enter_Elysium ecosystem.
Tokens like $BLOB, $KLEOS, $AGORA, $LETHE and $SPIRE.
🕵♂️ So I wanted to challenge my own thesis. After watching Arc’s early excitement fade, why should this new chajn play out any differently?
There are reasons to give Elysium a chance. But “new chain, early tokens” is nowhere near enough.
🟠 Arc shows how misleading launch numbers can be. Bitquery’s first-month investigation recorded roughly 406,000 active wallets on launch day, falling to around 24,700 per day in week four. Its analysis also attributed about 60% of the month’s DEX volume to one self-trading wallet and a bot cluster. Those are Bitquery’s estimates, based on its published methodology, but they raise a serious question about how much of the opening activity was sustainable.
🟢 Arc still has a substantial business case. Circle positions it around stablecoins, payments, tokenization and financial settlement. Those markets could develop even while early ecosystem tokens struggle. For someone buying launchpad tokens or memes, though, institutional adoption only helps if it brings activity into the markets those tokens depend on.
🟢 Elysium has a closer connection to the audience already trading these assets. @Kinetiq_xyz is building around @HyperliquidX , using $HYPE for gas and designing the network for spot markets, market makers and token launches.
🟢 My thesis is that this gives it a more natural starting point for a trading ecosystem. There is already a surrounding community with capital, trading habits and reasons to explore new markets. Getting those people to stay will still take good products.
🟢 The planned HyperCore integration is the part I’m most interested in.
Kinetiq describes contracts reading live order-book data and submitting trading instructions through revocable, trade-only agents. If delivered, that could support market-making and hedging strategies that use Elysium alongside Hyperliquid’s existing exchange infrastructure.
That is a practical reason for trading businesses to build there. The integration is planned for an upgrade around four weeks after mainnet, so its value still depends on execution.
🟢 There is also an incentive for builders to keep developing. Kinetiq has committed 25% of sequencer revenue to applications that drive blockspace usage. That could help fund rebates, liquidity programs and continued development after launch. The amount available depends on actual network revenue, so I’ll be watching what gets paid out and whether it produces returning users.
🟢 I’ve also experienced the weak side myself. Buying before the public opening has involved failed transactions, different RPCs and relays that only accept certain trades. If that experience continues, people will leave. The infrastructure needs to become much easier to use. But I think that will be mittigated at mainnet launch monday.
🟢 That’s why I think Elysium has a credible chance to hold up better than Arc’s early retail ecosystem. Its trading focus, Hyperliquid connection and builder incentives give it something to develop beyond launch-week speculation.
🟢 For my own positions, I’ll be watching repeat traders, usable liquidity, app revenue and whether the HyperCore upgrade actually ships. A rising market cap before launch tells me people are interested. What happens in the weeks afterwards will tell me whether the thesis is working.
